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blackLotus

3.1 NW: S-Korea vs Brazil

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S-Korea vs Brazil

Nation Wars

Pick: Korea

Oh boy.. the odds are terribly scewed torwards korea and that's for a reason. Zest, Innovation, Maru and Byun... that's arguably the 4 best players in the world while on the other side we got 3 players who haven't really been playing tournaments, 2 of them are marked as inactive on Aligulac. Any of them vs any of the forementioned koreans... it's a slaughter.

So there's Kelazhur... that's brazils hope. He's proven that he can take maps of koreans. Take maps, atleast once in a while. It's not a level playing field, not even close.

I'd imagine that brazil are doing 4 cheeses which the koreans should be expecting. If they'd just send Byun first and do proxy reapers vs everyone it'd be a closed out deal, if they go standard definsive play and somehow get caught offguard by missing the scouts in one of these games they might drop maps, but it's the only way they are going to lose... and they know it's coming.

Kelazhur has a 2-12 record vs Byun and vs Maru its 0-2. There are none recorded vs Inno and zest.

basically the odds are

outright win  = 1.037 (96,4%)

-1.5 = 1.125 (88.9%)

-2.5 = 1.344 (74.4%)

-3.5 = 2.460 (40.7%)

Stats wise Byun has 85.71% winrate over Kelazhur and i imagine it to be the same with the others. Korean vs the rest of brazils should be 96%+.

Bet size: 5% on -3.5

Bet size: 10% on -2.5

Bets are made on Pinnacle. If you follow my bets, be warned. I'm going pretty hard on these but like i've said, Kelazhur has shown being able to take maps of the big guys, even if it's once in a while. Carefull, tonight might be his lucky streak. However i think these bets are profitable, especially the -3.5. These bet sizes are bigger than usual.

 

 

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