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Acchan

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Everything posted by Acchan

  1. 5.19 FaZe vs Astralis

    Pick: Astralis Normally I would be trying to play the odds on FaZe here, but the 1.5 on Astralis is pretty skewed. I think this is due to them losing 0-3 to Faze at IEM Sydney, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Every game in that 0-3 went to OT, so some minor changes could be made and that 0-3 becomes a 3-0. Astralis have also been slightly better this event having not dropped a single map yet. This is in contrast to Faze who lost to Navi 0-2.
  2. 5.19 Liquid vs Navi

    Pick: Navi 2-0 Liquid have had a very easy run so far this tournament. The only t1 team Liquid have played was Astralis, who they lost 0-2 to. Navi, on the other hand, beat Faze 2-0, which is a very impressive win. I think Navi pretty easily beat out Liquid in individual talent as well. Taking a team to win 2-0 is very risky, but I think that it's pretty justified here.
  3. 5.19 AGO vs Godsent

    Pick: Low Ago This pick is mostly based on the odds. Godsent and Ago normally play pretty even with each other, with each team posting ten wins against the other. That's a decent sample size, and head to head indicators are pretty valuable. This being said, AGO also won the last bo3 that these two teams played. These two reasons are why the odds are a bit ridiculous to me at 2.1+ for AGO. They should be lower.
  4. 5.17 Heroic vs Mouz

    Pick: Low Heroic Heroic have been looking crazy good this tourney. They beat up on C9 winning 2-0. They beat NRG on Mirage, and they took Navi to map 3 OT. Mouz, on the other hand, have looked super flat all tourney. They haven't really brought out anything special thus far. Honestly, just because of how good the odds are, I can see an argument for going med onto Heroic. That's a very high risk play though, as Mouz are still a very good team, and are rightly the favorites in this matchup.
  5. 5.17 SK vs RNG

    Pick: Low SK 2-0 This is actually a very risky bet. SK have looked way better recently, but they made an IGL change and some of the new roles on the roster aren't incredibly clear. There's also still the language barrier with Stew. However, RNG lost very badly to SS with a stand-in earlier in this tournament. I think SS are ok but I don't think that RNG should be losing with single digit rounds to them with the stand-in.
  6. 5.17 SS vs Optic

    Pick: Low SS SS may be playing with a stand in, but I think the odds are good for them to win the series. Optic have a more impressive win in this tourney as they beat NiP 2-0; however, I don't think that warrants 2.3+ odds on SS. Optic are playing with a pretty new roster, so given some data on LAN I don't think it's impossible that teams will download them; I don't think their playbook will be that deep. I do think this team has a chance to be good long term, but I don't think they should be such heavy favorites yet.
  7. Pick: Low NiP Depending on how map 1 goes, this can be changed to a skip call. If NiP look horrible, I'll probably skip this game. However, as long as they play decently well, I'm confident in their ability to beat FaZe online. FaZe also just won IEM Sydney, so they may have a bit of a post tournament hangover. This isn't incredibly likely, but it's something to consider. As I said earlier, I think NiP and FaZe are in the same tier online atm, so the odds are good enough for a low bet.
  8. Pick: Low NiP I have FaZe and NiP in the same tier online atm. FaZe had a really strong showing at IEM Sydney, taking the tournament. Despite this, I wouldn't be surprised to see NiP win one or both maps today. I don't think the odds on NiP are anything special to jump at, but I think they're serviceable. If they win this game, my prediction on the second game will likely just change to a skip call depending on how close this map is.
  9. Pick: Med Fnatic A lot of the same reasoning goes into this bet as it went into my pick for Fnatic to win Mirage. Normally I wouldn't be super comfortable doing a double medium bet on a heavy favorite, but even if they split maps, there won't be a whole lot of loss. Again, the odds for Fnatic in this game are crazy good right now imo.
  10. Pick: Med Fnatic Medium is a bit to go in on for an online bo1, but Fnatic needs the games in ecs. I also think that Godsent are being overrated in this matchup. I don't think that they're in the same tier as Fnatic here. The 1.6 odds on Fnatic are a little ridiculous imo. A low bet is also reasonable because of how close these teams play historically and the fact that it's an online bo1. However, I think the odds on Fnatic are really good.
  11. 5.6 FaZe vs Astralis

    Pick: Low/ICB FaZe or Astralis Handicap These are pretty contradictory picks. However, FaZe have looked decent throughout this tourney, which makes me think that they have a chance of beating Astralis, especially since Mouz managed to take a map. This is probably the best the FaZe have looked with Xizt on the team. The odds on FaZe also lend to a nice underdog bet, as they're kind of insane. Everywhere on HLTV has FaZe at greater than 3.0 odds and that's insane to me. However, it's not completely unjustified as Astralis have been absolutely insane lately. They're playing as the most dominant top 1 team since FaZe in September of last year. A 3-1 outcome wouldn't be that surprising to me at all. Personally, I think I'm going to be going low on FaZe and trying to take advantage of the odds here. However, the one thing I don't like are Astralis' straight up odds at 1.3.
  12. 5.3 C9 vs FaZe

    Pick: Low C9 C9 and FaZe have both been really shaky since losing Stew and Olof respectively. Due to this, I think this matchup is actually pretty close to 50/50 making the odds being so in favor of FaZe kind of ridiculous to me. Both teams have a pretty rough loss at this tourney already, C9's admittedly being worse. However, C9 actually beat FaZe at Dreamhack, and, while I'm not expecting another 2-0, I think it's fair to say that getting 2.4 odds on C9 is a bit ridiculous.
  13. 5.3 G2 vs NRG

    Pick: Low G2 NRG played really well taking Astralis to OT, which is very impressive as Astralis has looked unstoppable lately. However, I still can't really agree with the odds being so 50/50 on this one, as G2 are still a very good team, and are overall better than NRG. I don't want to do more than low because NRG has been on an upswing and G2 has been on a downswing. In fact, if NRG were underdogs, I'd probably be taking them here, but I feel like that value has been traded in a bit since G2 are the underdog on some sites.
  14. 5.2 FaZe vs Grayhound

    Pick: Low FaZe 2-0 Grayhound may have been able to upset SK yesterday, but I don't think that they'll have the same result against FaZe. I'm expecting a result closer to FaZe vs ORDER than I am to vs Renegades. I think FaZe has too much individual fire power for Grayhound to keep up. However, I do think the odds for FaZe to win outright lack a lot of value. That's something I value very highly in these matches, and it's why I don't do a lot of preds for heavy favorites. I think the 2-0 line offers enough, but it comes with a tad more risk than winning outright. I'm not a big fan of going higher than a low bet on 2-0s or any handicap really.
  15. 5.2 G2 vs Fnatic

    Pick: Low Fnatic G2 are playing really inconsistently as of late. One day, they'll play like a top 5 team and another they just get bodied for free. They even beat Fnatic 2-0 recently online in ECS. However, Fnatic have been a better team offline than online, and I think that G2 will have a harder time beating out Fnatic in a bo3 as opposed to a pair of bo1s. We haven't seen this G2 roster play well offline yet either. Sure, they beat MVP the other day, but they should be beating a team like MVP every time anyway. I don't trust G2 on Lan enough yet as they haven't really shown anything. However, I can't recommend more than a low bet because G2 could be close to breaking out offline and catching a team off guard.
  16. 5.2 Astralis vs Mouz

    Pick: Low Mouz I think Astralis actually have a slight edge in this matchup. This is most obviously shown at the recent Dreamhack event where they seemed to win without even breaking a sweat. However, that game vs NRG yesterday was unusually close and may indicate that Astralis aren't quite in the same form/mental state as they were in Dreamhack. Mouz have been playing decently since Dreamhack and beat BOOT the way that you'd expect them to. Even though I give Astralis the slight edge, I think the odds on Mouz are really good at 2.7+, so I'm going to play the odds on Mouz.
  17. Pick: Low North North and HR are pretty evenly matched imo. I think both are inconsistent but can be decent. That's why my picks in this series are essentially coming down to the map selection, and I think that North have slight edge on train. Both of these teams are fighting over a playoff spot, so there should be some high level CS going on between them. Due to that, both of these games carry a good amount of risk, but that's why I'm only suggesting a low bet. The odds on North for train are also pretty good imo.
  18. 26.4 Astralis vs NiP

    Pick: Low NiP I think Astralis are actually the favorite in this matchup. However, I don't think the odds reflect NiP's upset potential in this one, so I'm going to go low nip at 2.6 or better odds. NiP have been a little shaky lately, but Astralis definitely aren't unbeatable. This was shown when they lost a game to Envy yesterday. Astralis and NiP are both comfortably in the EPL playoffs, so I wouldn't be too surprised if Astralis or NiP didn't really show up to this match. I think the odds on this one are too good to pass on.
  19. Pick: Low HR HR are pretty good on Cobble. They are much better than North there. The odds seem ok as well, but nothing insanely valuable. Both teams should be trying to play at a pretty high level because they going 2-0 would get them into the playoffs. Part of me wants to go med on this bet, but as an online bo1, I really can't. North are also a team of similar skill to HR, so there's definite upset potential in this matchup. However, Cobble gives HR enough of an edge to take this one imo.
  20. Pick: Low Mouz Mouz may have lost 2-0 to NiP yesterday, but they still played well. This is a stark contrast to Envy who, despite the win against Astralis, have looked horrible recently. Mouz may be safe to qualify atm, but they should still be giving their all to take the top spot from Navi. The odds on this one, predictably, aren't super appealing. I like them at 1.4+ for Mouz, but I don't think I'll be taking anything below that personally.
  21. Pick: Low Astralis NiP aren't afraid to play on Mirage, but it's also not really their preference. Astralis have been pretty good on Mirage lately, and this makes me think that they should be able to beat NiP who have been a tad shaky recently. However, the odds aren't going to be great, and I don't think that I'd commit to anything less than 1.35. These odds feel warranted because Astralis have been playing like the top 1 team in the world recently. These teams did have a close game on Mirage about a month ago, but we're looking at a different, much stronger Astralis team now.
  22. Pick: Low SS This match carries higher risk than a bet like this normally would because both teams are safe in EPL. This means that one or both might not really come to play. Despite this risk, I think SS have too good of odds to pass on this. FaZe are still a solid team, but are much less threatening with Xizt still on the roster. SS went out poorly at Dreamhack, so they could be looking for a good game to bounce back from that. At the very least, this should end up being a close match as FaZe have been playing EPL games that they need to win closely, let alone ones that they can afford to lose.
  23. Pick: Low G2 If I've said it once, I'll say it again, G2 have been really good on Mirage the past couple days. They've been in really good form on that map despite being 1-2 on it over the past 3 maps. Those were two close losses against the top tier teams (FaZe, Astralis), and a win against Fnatic. G2 also needs to go 2-0 today to qualify, so much like I expected from Fnatic yesterday, they should be doing all they can. Navi have also been decent on Mirage lately, but I like the combination of odds and recent Mirage play better from G2.
  24. Pick: Low VP Godsent normally autoban Nuke. This is the first red flag that I see for them in this game. VP are also becoming good on Nuke again after going through the end of the Golden 5 era and the new roster change. This makes me happy as a VP fan; however, some sites offer way more value than others while I'm writing this. Some are as low as 1.34 and as high as 1.7. I don't think many will actually see the 1.7 odds by the time the match starts, but I like this match at 1.5+ odds. Anything below that loses a lot of value for me because of how inconsistent VP are.
  25. Pick: Low G2 I'll be going back to the Mirage well with G2 against Fnatic today. They put up two impressive performances before choking away their lead against FaZe. As crazy as it is to choke a lead that size, it's even harder to build it in the first place. G2's recent results haven't really matched up with their recent play. This is good for us as the odds are more reflective of their results. G2 almost beat Astralis and FaZe and those teams are both at or above Fnatic's level as a team. I don't think G2 will easily win, but I do think that they will win.
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