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      Two 13.37€ risk free bets!   02/18/2018

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Acchan

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  1. 5.19 FaZe vs Astralis

    Pick: Astralis Normally I would be trying to play the odds on FaZe here, but the 1.5 on Astralis is pretty skewed. I think this is due to them losing 0-3 to Faze at IEM Sydney, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Every game in that 0-3 went to OT, so some minor changes could be made and that 0-3 becomes a 3-0. Astralis have also been slightly better this event having not dropped a single map yet. This is in contrast to Faze who lost to Navi 0-2.
  2. 5.19 Liquid vs Navi

    Pick: Navi 2-0 Liquid have had a very easy run so far this tournament. The only t1 team Liquid have played was Astralis, who they lost 0-2 to. Navi, on the other hand, beat Faze 2-0, which is a very impressive win. I think Navi pretty easily beat out Liquid in individual talent as well. Taking a team to win 2-0 is very risky, but I think that it's pretty justified here.
  3. 5.19 AGO vs Godsent

    Pick: Low Ago This pick is mostly based on the odds. Godsent and Ago normally play pretty even with each other, with each team posting ten wins against the other. That's a decent sample size, and head to head indicators are pretty valuable. This being said, AGO also won the last bo3 that these two teams played. These two reasons are why the odds are a bit ridiculous to me at 2.1+ for AGO. They should be lower.
  4. 5.17 Heroic vs Mouz

    Pick: Low Heroic Heroic have been looking crazy good this tourney. They beat up on C9 winning 2-0. They beat NRG on Mirage, and they took Navi to map 3 OT. Mouz, on the other hand, have looked super flat all tourney. They haven't really brought out anything special thus far. Honestly, just because of how good the odds are, I can see an argument for going med onto Heroic. That's a very high risk play though, as Mouz are still a very good team, and are rightly the favorites in this matchup.
  5. 5.17 SK vs RNG

    Pick: Low SK 2-0 This is actually a very risky bet. SK have looked way better recently, but they made an IGL change and some of the new roles on the roster aren't incredibly clear. There's also still the language barrier with Stew. However, RNG lost very badly to SS with a stand-in earlier in this tournament. I think SS are ok but I don't think that RNG should be losing with single digit rounds to them with the stand-in.
  6. 5.17 SS vs Optic

    Pick: Low SS SS may be playing with a stand in, but I think the odds are good for them to win the series. Optic have a more impressive win in this tourney as they beat NiP 2-0; however, I don't think that warrants 2.3+ odds on SS. Optic are playing with a pretty new roster, so given some data on LAN I don't think it's impossible that teams will download them; I don't think their playbook will be that deep. I do think this team has a chance to be good long term, but I don't think they should be such heavy favorites yet.
  7. Pick: Low NiP Depending on how map 1 goes, this can be changed to a skip call. If NiP look horrible, I'll probably skip this game. However, as long as they play decently well, I'm confident in their ability to beat FaZe online. FaZe also just won IEM Sydney, so they may have a bit of a post tournament hangover. This isn't incredibly likely, but it's something to consider. As I said earlier, I think NiP and FaZe are in the same tier online atm, so the odds are good enough for a low bet.
  8. Pick: Low NiP I have FaZe and NiP in the same tier online atm. FaZe had a really strong showing at IEM Sydney, taking the tournament. Despite this, I wouldn't be surprised to see NiP win one or both maps today. I don't think the odds on NiP are anything special to jump at, but I think they're serviceable. If they win this game, my prediction on the second game will likely just change to a skip call depending on how close this map is.
  9. Pick: Med Fnatic A lot of the same reasoning goes into this bet as it went into my pick for Fnatic to win Mirage. Normally I wouldn't be super comfortable doing a double medium bet on a heavy favorite, but even if they split maps, there won't be a whole lot of loss. Again, the odds for Fnatic in this game are crazy good right now imo.
  10. Pick: Med Fnatic Medium is a bit to go in on for an online bo1, but Fnatic needs the games in ecs. I also think that Godsent are being overrated in this matchup. I don't think that they're in the same tier as Fnatic here. The 1.6 odds on Fnatic are a little ridiculous imo. A low bet is also reasonable because of how close these teams play historically and the fact that it's an online bo1. However, I think the odds on Fnatic are really good.
  11. 5.6 FaZe vs Astralis

    Pick: Low/ICB FaZe or Astralis Handicap These are pretty contradictory picks. However, FaZe have looked decent throughout this tourney, which makes me think that they have a chance of beating Astralis, especially since Mouz managed to take a map. This is probably the best the FaZe have looked with Xizt on the team. The odds on FaZe also lend to a nice underdog bet, as they're kind of insane. Everywhere on HLTV has FaZe at greater than 3.0 odds and that's insane to me. However, it's not completely unjustified as Astralis have been absolutely insane lately. They're playing as the most dominant top 1 team since FaZe in September of last year. A 3-1 outcome wouldn't be that surprising to me at all. Personally, I think I'm going to be going low on FaZe and trying to take advantage of the odds here. However, the one thing I don't like are Astralis' straight up odds at 1.3.
  12. 5.3 C9 vs FaZe

    Pick: Low C9 C9 and FaZe have both been really shaky since losing Stew and Olof respectively. Due to this, I think this matchup is actually pretty close to 50/50 making the odds being so in favor of FaZe kind of ridiculous to me. Both teams have a pretty rough loss at this tourney already, C9's admittedly being worse. However, C9 actually beat FaZe at Dreamhack, and, while I'm not expecting another 2-0, I think it's fair to say that getting 2.4 odds on C9 is a bit ridiculous.
  13. 5.3 G2 vs NRG

    Pick: Low G2 NRG played really well taking Astralis to OT, which is very impressive as Astralis has looked unstoppable lately. However, I still can't really agree with the odds being so 50/50 on this one, as G2 are still a very good team, and are overall better than NRG. I don't want to do more than low because NRG has been on an upswing and G2 has been on a downswing. In fact, if NRG were underdogs, I'd probably be taking them here, but I feel like that value has been traded in a bit since G2 are the underdog on some sites.
  14. 5.2 FaZe vs Grayhound

    Pick: Low FaZe 2-0 Grayhound may have been able to upset SK yesterday, but I don't think that they'll have the same result against FaZe. I'm expecting a result closer to FaZe vs ORDER than I am to vs Renegades. I think FaZe has too much individual fire power for Grayhound to keep up. However, I do think the odds for FaZe to win outright lack a lot of value. That's something I value very highly in these matches, and it's why I don't do a lot of preds for heavy favorites. I think the 2-0 line offers enough, but it comes with a tad more risk than winning outright. I'm not a big fan of going higher than a low bet on 2-0s or any handicap really.
  15. 5.2 G2 vs Fnatic

    Pick: Low Fnatic G2 are playing really inconsistently as of late. One day, they'll play like a top 5 team and another they just get bodied for free. They even beat Fnatic 2-0 recently online in ECS. However, Fnatic have been a better team offline than online, and I think that G2 will have a harder time beating out Fnatic in a bo3 as opposed to a pair of bo1s. We haven't seen this G2 roster play well offline yet either. Sure, they beat MVP the other day, but they should be beating a team like MVP every time anyway. I don't trust G2 on Lan enough yet as they haven't really shown anything. However, I can't recommend more than a low bet because G2 could be close to breaking out offline and catching a team off guard.
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