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Ipelius last won the day on August 1 2016

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About Ipelius

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    Dota 2
  1. The International props

    Update on the odds: Elder Titan: 2.19 > 2.07 Shadow Demon: 5.00 > 2.44 Timbersaw: 1.704 > 1.327 Disruptor: 2.29 > 2.26 SD and Timber have unplayable odds now, I would consider surebetting Drow with 1.568. Elder Titan has still really good odds and Disruptor is also a good bet in my books.
  2. The International props

    Few new ones: More popular hero (Pick+Ban): Timbersaw - Dark Seer Pick: Timbersaw Odds: 1.704 Bet size: 3 Timbersaw has the edge in this match up since not only is he the more popular offlaner, but also can be played mid and safelane. Dark Seer hasn't been that great of an offlane pick nowadays and definately not banned much. I expect a lot of timersaw bans though even in the 1st, 2nd phase. More popular hero (Pick+Ban): Lion - Disruptor Pick: Disruptor Odds: 2.29 Bet size: 2 Disruptor was the most picked hero of Manila and definately needs to be recognized in TI aswell. Both of the heroes won't face a lot of bans, so it's a match of who gets picked more. Disruptor direct counters more heroes than Lion does and Lion hasn't really been that much favored as a "go to support". I would give the edge to Disruptor in this matchup.
  3. This topic can be used to collect all of our TI6 props. Pinnacle is giving quite a bit of props bets and I found one that makes no sense in my mind: More popular hero (Pick+Ban): Elder Titan - Faceless Void Pick: Elder Titan Odds: 2.19 Bet Size: 5 Elder Titan is first tier pick/ban almost in every game at the moment. I checked like 10 teams randomly in Dotabuff and almost all of them had ET as their highest win rate hero or atleast over 50%. I think ET is way too OP at the moment to be ever not pick/banned. I genuinely think that ET will be the most pick/banned hero of the tournament and making him underdog against Void?!?! I don't think Void should be in the top 3 popular heroes. I don't understand. Definately high bet material in my books Another one worthy of an attempt: More popular hero (Pick+Ban): Drow Ranger - Shadow Demon Pick: Shadow Demon Odds: 5.00 Bet size: 1 I know Drow is meta at the moment but I feel like it could fade out further into the tournament when teams find a way to counter it. Shadow demon is a high tier support pick and has a chance being more popular than Drow. SD is abused with illusion combos and also played alot with and against the strongest heroes of the patch. Low bet from me, seems to have value.
  4. 2.6 - Na'Vi vs Secret

    Na'Vi - Team Secret Manila Majors Pick: Team Secret Odds: 1.65 (Betway) Bet Size: 3 Manila Majors are starting tomorrow and what is a better way to start them betting wise than a good old surebet. Betway is offering 1.65 for Secret while marathon is offering 2.57 for Na'Vi making the return slightly above 100%. Betway's odds are really different from other bookies and I believe that with these conditions Secret is a solid 63% favorite for the match. Na'Vi can definitely win this but I see it less likely than the odds show.
  5. Alliance - Virtus Pro The Summit 5 BO3 Pick: Alliance Odds: 1.6 Bet size: 3,5 Had a small break from tipping but here we go again! I think VP hasn't played scarily enough recently to contest Alliance on a BO3 series. Alliance is a tier 1 team and I think their playing is on a higher level than VP's. Yesterday you could fine tons of missplays from VP's games and they really didn't look strong versus Ad Finem. Alliance is a solid team that deserves 65% probability. Sure Alliance has funky games here and there but the odds of 1.6 is in my eyes profitable. For some reason I'm having tough time trying to find this game from various bookies, but on Fanobet the odds are really differentiating from others. The market average is under 1.5, so the odds of 1.6 seems really good
  6. 15.5 - OG vs Newbee

    OG - Newbee Epicenter Pick: Newbee Odds: 1.64 (Marathonbet) Bet size: 3 Sure, OG won Newbee previously but there is no doubt who is the big favorite here. I think that there is no reason to make this match-up this even. Newbee is arguably the best team at the moment and their mid-game performances are extremely good. They can lose early game but still have the advantage in later because they are so freaking good. OG can definitely win this, but it will take a lot and I believe Newbee is a bit smarter than last time. I would make Newbee 65-70% favorite here, making odds of 1.64 fairly profitable.
  7. Newbee - Alliance Epicenter Pick: Alliance to win [Pinnacle], Alliance (+1,5) [Marathhonbet] Odds: 4.14; 2.03 Bet size: 1; 2 Going to bet a big underdog here. Newbee is one of the best teams at the moment but they aren't unwinnable as OG proved us yesterday. I know Alliance is capable of winning any team out there so I find odds over 4 quite playable. They have been playing a bit unreliably but if they get on their best game the match will be closer than people think. I can see Alliance winning at least one game here more than 50% of the time so +1,5 is a nice bet as well. Obviously Newbee is a favorite here but with the odds given it's a worthy attempt.
  8. 11.5 - OG vs Alliance

    OG - Alliance Epicenter Pick: Alliance Odds: 2.63 (Marathonbet) Bet Size: 1.5 I think this match will be awesome and most definitely worthwhile watching. In my opinion Alliance is being underrated at the moment and this match will be closer than expected. Sure they got beat down by OG earlier but Alliance is still definitely a good team and has a chance to win OG today. Alliance players are so used to playing with each other, I feel as the games become more important they improve their performances. Last match vs CoL they got a 2-0 win so that gives a good feeling to go to next game. Game will be close but I must be betting Alliance with those odds. Can't wait for the match tho!
  9. Liquid - compLexity Epicenter Pick: Liquid to win Odds: 1.50 (Pinnacle) Bet Size: 3.5 I'm giving Liquid bigger edge than the bookies are giving credit for. CoL has been playing great recently and won good teams. However now they are playing versus one of the best teams out there and I believe that Liquid is just too much for them to handle, as the past 3 encounters show: 3-0 for Liquid. Liquid hasn't played a competitive match since ESL One, which might also one reason why the odds are so high. Liquid however always shows up big in tournaments and I know that they are scrimming and training as hell. Maybe compLexity's previous wins over DiG and Fnatic has eaten all their odds, but for this game I'm making Liquid a 70% favorite.
  10. No Diggity vs Vega Squadron Major Qualifiers Pick: No Diggity Odds: 1.909 (Marathonbet) Bet size: 2.5 BO3 No Diggity has been showing great performances recently in the qualifiers. Sure they lost to Kaipi, but at that point the games didn't really matter for No Diggity. Overall their game has looked wonderful. No Diggity has a good team and they've been playing great together. I think that they could steamroll over Vega, who has played decently, but when compared to No Diggity's performances, not so much. I'm making DiG a favorite to win a match and odds over 1.9 is a pick for me.
  11. 4.5 - Vega vs Rebels

    My main bookie is definitely Marathonbet. They have really high payback percentage and often times odds that are off place. Usually I compare Marathonbet's odds to Bet365, Pinnacle, Betway, Ebettle and EGB. Ebettle and EGB have really bad payback percentage but sometimes their odds differ a lot from others. But yeah, usually when there is a surebet, there is one bookie giving weird odds for certain outcome and often times it is Marathon. Marathonbet however has pretty low bet limits, so high rollers have rough time getting their bets in. But a casual low stakes player like me Marathon is perfect.
  12. Ad Finem - Virtus Pro Manila Qualifiers Pick: Virtus Pro to win Odds: 4.40 (Marathonbet) Bet Size: 1 I don't know what's going on with the odds today but I found another surebet. This time payout for the surebet is only 1,5%, however I believe that Virtus Pro's win with 4.40 has more value than that. Marathon offering 4.4 for VP, Bet365 offering 3.25 for AF, Pinnacle offering 2.219 for a tie Marathonbet's odds are again different from others and they are giving VP higher odds than anyone else. VP has had a pretty rough qualifiers so far, but that does not mean that they are 22% underdogs to win AF. Great odds and great bet in my books!
  13. 4.5 - Vega vs Rebels

    It's not a big task. Just whenever i find odds that seems to be off I look more into it. It's really fast to calculate and only takes a minute.
  14. 4.5 - Vega vs Rebels

    Vega Squadron - Rebels Major Qualifiers Pick: Tie Odds: 2.91 (Marathonbet) Bet size: 1.5 Found another surebet between Marathonbet and Bet365. Marathon is offering crazy 2.91 odds for a tie game while market average is below 2.4. You could actually make a profit of 4,7% by betting Vega and Rebel on Bet365 and betting tie at Marathon. I believe that Rebel is totally capable of winning one game and chance for a tie is likely here. I don't know why Marathonbet is underrating the chance for a tie but I'll be taking these!
  15. Polarity - No Diggity Major Qualifiers Pick: Tie Odds: 2.26 (Marathonbet) Bet size: 2 Best of 2 series. Betting for a tie is most likely the least favored style of betting. Since no one is betting for it, the bookies sometimes makes the odds for a tie too big. For that reason you might be able to get really good value on a tie bet. Marathonbet is offering 2.26 for a tie while Bet365 is offering 1.83. That's a huge difference and it tells that there is money to be made. Something about this match smells like a tie No Diggity, while being a good team and a favorite for a match can definitely lose 1 game. No Diggity feels to have a good team spirit and all, but I feel like they are still in the learning phase. They might become big in the future but at the moment I see them losing one for Polarity. With the odds of 2.26 definitely a worthy pick.